Does age matter in inflation uncertainty?

被引:0
|
作者
Zhong, Chunping [1 ,2 ]
Huo, Jiaxu [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Chinese Acad Social Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Chinese Acad Social Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
关键词
Inflation expectations; Uncertainty; Age-heterogeneous; Subjective probability distribution;
D O I
10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111834
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
This letter studies age-heterogeneous inflation uncertainty. We contrast two measures of uncertainty: The variance of the respondents' subjective belief distribution and the relatively objective rounding-based uncertainty. Inconsistency of two measures suggests that older individuals may underestimate inflation uncertainty while the young tend to overestimate it. This is further supported by the observation that older individuals have higher prediction errors. The research indicates a potential bias in subjective uncertainty assessments of different age groups.
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页数:9
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