Prognostic factors for local recurrence in patients with rectal cancer submitted to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision

Prognostic factors for local recurrence in patients with rectal cancer submitted to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision. Background: The standard curative treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer of the middle and lower thirds is long-course chemoradiotherapy followed by total mesorectal excision. Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic factors associated with local recurrence in patients with rectal cancer submitted to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision. Methods: Retrospective study including patients with rectal cancer T3-4N0M0 or T (any)N+ M0 located within 10 cm from the anal border, or patients with T2N0M0 located within 5 cm, treated by long course chemoradiotherapy followed by total mesorectal excision with curative intent. Clinical, demographic, radiologic, surgical, and anatomopathological data were collected. Local recurrence was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier function, and risk was estimated according to each characteristic using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: 270 patients were included, 57.8% male and mean age 61.7 (30-88) years. At initial staging, 6.7% of patients were stage I, 21.5% stage II, and 71.8% stage III. Open surgery was performed in 65.2%, with sphincter preservation in 78.1%. Mortality within 30 postoperative days was 0.7%. After 49.4 (0.5-86.1) months of median follow-up, overall and local recurrences were 26.3% and 5.9%. On multivariate analyses, local recurrence was associated with involvement of the mesorectal fascia on restaging MRI (HR = 9.11, p = 0.001) and with pathologic involvement of radial surgical margin (HR = 8.19, p <0.001). Conclusion: Local recurrence of rectal cancer treated with long-course chemoradiation and total mesorectal excision is low and is associated with pathologic involvement of the radial surgical margin and can be predicted on restaging MRI.