Trajectories of medical care expenditure in the last year of life associated with long-term care utilization in frail older adults: A retrospective cohort study

Background Medical care and long-term care utilization in the last year of life of frail older adults could be a key indicator of their quality of life. This study aimed to identify the medical care expenditure (MCE) trajectories in the last year of life of frail older adults by investigating the association between MCE and long-term care utilization in each trajectory.Methods The retrospective cohort study of three municipalities in Japan included 405 decedents (median age at death, 85 years; 189 women [46.7%]) from a cohort of 1,658 frail older adults aged >= 65 years who were newly certified as support level in the long-term care insurance program from April 2012 to March 2013. This study used long-term care and medical insurance claim data from April 2012 to March 2017. The primary outcome was MCE over the 12 months preceding death. Group-based trajectory modeling was conducted to identify the MCE trajectories. A mixed-effect model was employed to examine the association between long-term care utilization and MCE in each trajectory.Results Participants were stratified into four groups based on MCE trajectories over the 12 months preceding death as follows: rising (n = 159, 39.3%), persistently high (n = 143, 35.3%), minimal (n = 56, 13.8%), and descending (n = 47, 11.6%) groups. Home-based long-term care utilization was associated with increased MCE in the descending trajectory (coefficient, 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-1.62). Facility-based long-term care utilization was associated with reduced MCE in the rising trajectory (coefficient, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.50-0.69). Both home-based (coefficient, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85-0.99) and facility-based (coefficient; 0.53; 95% CI, 0.41-0.63) long-term care utilization were associated with reduced MCE in the persistently high trajectory.Conclusions These findings may facilitate the integration of medical and long-term care models at the end of life in frail older adults.