Quantitative Risk Analysis of Technological Accidents Triggered by Lightning and Flood in Turkey

Natural disasters can cause Natech (Natural Hazards Triggering Technical Accidents) by triggering hazardous events such as fire, explosions, and toxic emissions in industrial organizations. As a result of the Natech accidents, a significant loss of life, property, and environment is experienced. Risk management of Natech accidents is extremely important. In this study, a new methodology was put forward based on quantitative risk analysis for Natech accidents triggered by floods and lightning simultaneously. The methodology was applied in Turkey, where no study has been conducted on the risk analysis of Natech accidents so far. The methodology started with the analysis of past recent Natech accidents and continued with the selection of sample industrial organizations that had obligations as per the legislation with the relevant natural disaster types and affected equipment types. Then, quantitative risk analysis was carried out with a combination of various tools over new hypothetical scenarios and new models. Natech accident scenario frequencies were determined for the first time considering the organizational protection layers and the operator intervention protection layer. In Natech accidents triggered by the flood, modeling studies were carried out on possible release modes by considering the internal and external environmental factors together. It is foreseen that the results of the study will provide important inputs to emergency plans and crisis management. Also, the study will be a guide for public and private sector practitioners.