Prognostic factors of first intimate partner violence among ever-married women in Sub-Saharan Africa: Gompertz gamma shared frailty modeling

Background Violence against women, particularly intimate partner violence, is a significant Concern for public health as well as a violation of the human rights of women especially in low and middle-income countries. However, there was limited evidence how soon an ever-married women experience intimate partner violence in Africa. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the timing of first intimate partner violence (FIPV) among ever-married women in 30 SSA countries and to identify the risk factors of the timing.Methods The present study has utilized 125,731 weighted samples, who participated in the domestic violence module of the survey from Demographic and Health Surveys of 30 SSA countries. The Gompertz gamma shared frailty model was fitted to determine the predictors. For model evaluation, the theta value, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and deviance were used. The Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported in the multivariable Gompertz gamma shared frailty model to highlight the strength and statistical significance of the associations.Result One-third (31.02%) of ever-married women had reported experiencing IPV. The overall incidence rate of FIPV was 57.68 persons per 1000 person-years (95% CI = 50.61-65.76). Age at marriage, age difference, educational status, employment, residence, women's decision-making autonomy, husband who drink alcohol and wealth status were significantly associated with the timing of FIPV.Conclusion The findings show that ever-married women are at high and increasing risk of violence. Thus, we recommend establishing effective health and legal response services for IPV, strengthening laws governing the sale and purchase of alcohol, empowering women, raising the educational attainment of women, and putting policies in place to combat the culture of societal tolerance for IPV all contribute to the empowerment of women.