Reliability analysis of deep space satellites launched 1991-2020: Bulk population and deployable satellite performance analysis

Flight data for deep space satellites launched and operated between 1991 and 2020 is analyzed to generate various reliability metrics. Satellite reliability is first estimated by the Kaplan-Meier estimator, then parameterized through the Weibull distribution. This general process is applied to a general satellite data set that included all deep space satellites launched between 1991 and 2020, as well as two data subsets. One subset focuses on deployable satellites, while the other introduces a methodology of normalizing satellite lifetimes by satellite design life. Results from the general data set prove deep space satellites suffer from infant mortality while the results from the deployable data subset show deployable deep space satellites are only reliable over short periods of time. Results from the design life normalized data set give promising results, with satellites having a relatively high chance of reaching their design life. Available information regarding specific modes of failure is also leveraged to generate a percent contribution to overall satellite failure for eight distinct failure modes. Satellite failure due to crashing, in-space propulsion failure, and telemetry system failure are proven to drive both early in life failure and later in life failure, making them the main causes of decreased reliability.