Neural substrates of predicting anhedonia symptoms in major depressive disorder via connectome-based modeling

Main Problem: Anhedonia is a critical diagnostic symptom of major depressive disorder (MDD), being associated with poor prognosis. Understanding the neural mechanisms underlying anhedonia is of great significance for individuals with MDD, and it encourages the search for objective indicators that can reliably identify anhedonia. Methods: A predictive model used connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) for anhedonia symptoms was developed by utilizing pre-treatment functional connectivity (FC) data from 59 patients with MDD. Node-based FC analysis was employed to compare differences in FC patterns between melancholic and non-melancholic MDD patients. The support vector machines (SVM) method was then applied for classifying these two subtypes of MDD patients. Results: CPM could successfully predict anhedonia symptoms in MDD patients (positive network: r = 0.4719, p < 0.0020, mean squared error = 23.5125, 5000 iterations). Compared to non-melancholic MDD patients, melancholic MDD patients showed decreased FC between the left cingulate gyrus and the right parahippocampus gyrus (p_(bonferroni) = 0.0303). This distinct FC pattern effectively discriminated between melancholic and non-melancholic MDD patients, achieving a sensitivity of 93.54%, specificity of 67.86%, and an overall accuracy of 81.36% using the SVM method. Conclusions: This study successfully established a network model for predicting anhedonia symptoms in MDD based on FC, as well as a classification model to differentiate between melancholic and non-melancholic MDD patients. These findings provide guidance for clinical treatment.