Predictive analysis of groundwater balance and assessment of safe yield using a probabilistic groundwater model for the Dead Sea Basin

Introduction: Groundwater in the Middle East and North Africa region is a critical component of the water supply budget due to a (semi-)arid climate and hence limited surface water resources. Despite the significance, factors affecting the groundwater balance and overall sustainability of the resource are often poorly understood. This often includes recharge and discharge characteristics, groundwater extraction and impacts of climate change. The present study investigates the groundwater balance in the Dead Sea Basin aquifer in Jordan using a groundwater flow model developed using the MODFLOW. Methods: The study aimed to simulate groundwater balance components and their effect on estimation of the aquifer's safe yield, and to also undertake a preliminary analysis of the impact of climate change on groundwater levels in the aquifer. Model calibration and predictive analysis was undertaken using a probabilistic modeling workflow. Spatially heterogeneous groundwater recharge for the historical period was estimated as a function of rainfall by simultaneously calibrating the recharge and aquifer hydraulic property parameters. Results and discussion: The model indicated that annual average recharge constituted 5.1% of the precipitation over a simulation period of 6 years. The effect of groundwater recharge and discharge components were evaluated in the context of estimation of safe yield of the aquifer. The average annual safe yield is estimated as similar to 8.0 mm corresponding to the 80% of the calibrated recharge value. Simulated groundwater levels matched well with the declining trends in observed water levels which are indicative of unsustainable use. Long-term simulation of groundwater levels indicated that current conditions would result in large drawdown in groundwater levels by the end of the century. Simulation of climate change scenarios using projected estimates of rainfall and evaporation indicates that climate change scenarios would further exacerbate groundwater levels by relatively small amounts. These findings highlight the need to simulate the groundwater balance to better understand the water availability and future sustainability.