Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Project Schedule Risk Analysis in the Construction Industry

The risk of project delay is a common phenomenon with an adverse effect on the performance of projects in the construction sector. The effect of its negative impacts in terms of cost overruns, reduced quality, and productivity extends to the owner, consultant, and contractor. The goal of this paper is to introduce an agent-based simulation model for the risk analysis of the project schedule component of construction projects, based on three risk management decisions. In the simulated model, the authors indicate four main phases in the construction process, along with their approval stages: (1) handing over; (2) engineering; (3) procurement; and (4) construction, which are commonly subjected to delays in the completion of the required activities. In addition, the developed simulation model should allow decision-makers to explore the impact of risks on the project schedule, in terms of schedule and cost overrun, based on two risk-response controls: acceptance or mitigation. As such, three simulation models are formulated: (A) no risks; (B) with risks; and (C) with mitigation. The model has been run based on a 70% mitigation value. The results indicate rational values. Since the duration for the risks for the 'with risk' scenario resulted in the highest time, followed by the 'with mitigation' scenario, the lowest time is recorded for the 'no risks'. Similarly, the highest cost is recorded for the 'with mitigation' scenario, followed by the 'with risks', ending with the 'no risks' scenario. Further validation tools signified the effectiveness of the mitigation decision on the recorded results. This is demonstrated by the sudden drop as the mitigation value has been decreased based on the user's input.