Spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon budget and balance zoning: Insights from the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration, China

Urbanization has substantially changed land use and led to local growth and an overall imbalance in carbon emissions. Scientific analysis of carbon emissions from land use (CELU) and exploration of carbon balance zoning can provide useful references for regional low-carbon land use management in urban agglomerations. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of CELU based on land use and socioeconomic data, and utilizing the emission coefficient method. The economic contribution coefficient of carbon emissions (ECC) and Ecological Support Coefficient of carbon emissions (ESC) was used as the basis for developing carbon balance zoning, and the main function positioning of counties was used to combine with carbon balance zoning. Subsequently carbon balance partitions with determinants across 190 counties in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration (MRYRUA) was obtained. We found that the net carbon emissions from land use in MRYRUA increased from 1.242 to 4.049 million tons, showing a clear upward trend. Notably, the Gini coefficients of carbon emissions and sinks of the MRYRUA were both higher than 0.4, and the pressure on the regional carbon balance intensified. In addition, based on the carbon balance analysis, MRYRUA was divided into five types: lowcarbon economic zones, low-carbon optimization zones, carbon intensity control zones and high-carbon optimization zones. These zones were used to combine with the main function positioning, and finally got 11 types of zoning results. In response, this study proposes different low-carbon land-use optimization strategies based on the carbon budget and comprehensive development characteristics of different zones.