Unveiling Hydrological Shifts under Projected Climate Change in Highly Irrigated Semi-Arid State of Telangana, India

Climate change threatens water and food security, affecting livelihoods around the globe. In Telangana, India, agriculture depends on monsoon rains, which are significantly altered by climate change. Climate Change has modified the monsoon rains drastically, and hence, the agricultural practices need to be revised to adopt the impacts of climate change. We analyzed the multimodal mean of 13 GCMs that were downscaled from the CMIP6 experiment for four different scenarios viz., SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, to evaluate how climate change is projected to affect Telangana's water resources. Our findings suggest that the region's climate systems are expected to change, with precipitation increasing by 15 to 50% and temperatures by 0.3 to 2.94 degrees C. This will have a significant impact on water yield and crop yield in the region. Moreover, the analysis of water balance components simulated by SWAT indicates that while evapotranspiration may experience a slight increase (0-50%), the amplified precipitation levels will significantly impact water yield (16-108%). The increased rainfall is expected to result in a more significant surge in surface runoff. The effects of climate change in the area have shown significant variation in both space and time. A thorough evaluation of the findings suggests the most effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The study offers insights for policymakers and government officials to design effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to address these pressing water-related concerns. Shifting crop types from paddy to irrigated dry crops, prioritizing rain-fed crops, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, recycling of water and implementing water regulation, and site specific rainwater harvesting and water conservation measures can help establish water security in the region.