The Dynamics of Energy-Related Carbon Emissions and Their Influencing Factors in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Chinese cities are pursuing an energy transition to decouple energy-related carbon emissions (ERCEs) from economic growth. Despite numerous studies focusing on the factors influencing carbon emissions, few have quantitatively analyzed their respective contribution rates, thus leaving a gap in effectively guiding policies. This study took 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) as the study area. The decoupling between ERCEs and economic growth was analyzed during 2000-2020, and the contribution rates of different factors were explored. The results showed that the total ERCEs increased from 413.40 million to 1265.86 million tons during 2000-2020, increasing by over three times. Coal and oil were the dominant energy sources in most cities, but natural gas consumption increased from 0.15% to 5.96%. Moreover, 14 cities showed a decoupling status, indicating a certain win-win situation between economic growth and ERCE reduction. Economic growth greatly increased ERCEs, with its contribution rate ranging from 114.65% to 493.27% during 2000-2020. On the contrary, energy structure and energy intensity both contributed to reducing ERCEs in most cities, and their maximum contribution rates reached -32.29% and -449.13%, respectively, which were the main forces for the win-win situation. Finally, carbon reduction proposals are put forward, which provide theoretical support for achieving the "Double Carbon" goal in the YRD.