Partitioned Simulation of Land Use Change Based on Carbon Neutrality Zoning and Its Multiscale Effect on Carbon Emissions in the Xia-Zhang-Quan Metropolitan Circle, China

Urbanization significantly affects the global carbon balance. Therefore, clarifying the effect of urbanization-induced land use change on carbon emissions and proposing the zonal-based policy implementation became crucial. In this study, we estimated the future land use carbon emissions in three scenarios by adopting the partitioned Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) in the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou (XZQ) metropolitan circle, China. The results showed that (1) the region could be divided into two sub-areas (carbon sink function zone and high-carbon optimization zone); the partitioned PLUS model had a higher accuracy in the developed areas, whereas it had a lower accuracy in the undeveloped areas; (2) the main characteristic of land use change was the construction on the land that was previously farmland, spanning 260.2 km2; the land used for construction would continue to expand, with 215.5 km2 (8.2%), 261.0 km2 (9.9%), and 129.5 km2 (4.9%) in the natural development scenario (ND), economic development scenario (ED), and carbon neutrality scenario (CN), respectively; (3) the amount of carbon emissions would increase by 196.2 x 104 tons and 235.4 x 104 tons in the ND and ED, respectively, whereas, it would decrease by 49.0 x 104 tons in the CN. This study made a beneficial attempt at partitioning based on carbon neutrality by improving the PLUS model simulation results and carbon emission assessment, which could provide methods and references for future similar studies. The findings suggest a method for the coordinated development between the carbon sink function zone and the high-carbon optimization zone. In addition, comprehensively understanding the land use change and its effects on carbon emissions, from this study, could provide important insights into carbon neutrality and regional sustainable development for urban planners and policymakers. In future research, the zoning research could be conducted at a finer scale, since the partition results were relatively coarse in this study.