Community-based breeding programs can realize sustainable genetic gain and economic benefits in tropical dairy cattle systems

Implementing an appropriate breeding program is crucial to control fluctuation in performance, enhance adaptation, and further improve the crossbred population of dairy cattle. Five alternative breeding programs (BPs) were modeled considering available breeding units in the study area, the existing crossbreeding practices, and the future prospects of dairy research and development in Ethiopia. The study targeted 143,576 crossbred cows of 54,822 smallholder households in the Arsi, West Shewa, and North Shewa zones of the Oromia Region, as well as the North Shewa zone of the Amhara Region. The alternative BPs include conventional on-station progeny testing (SPT), conventional on-farm progeny testing (FPT), conventional on-station and on-farm progeny testing (SFPT), genomic selection (GS), and genomic progeny testing (GPT). Input parameters for modeling the BPs were taken from the analysis of long-term data obtained from the Holetta Agricultural Research Center and a survey conducted in the study area. ZPLAN+ software was used to predict estimates of genetic gain (GG) and discounted profit for goal traits. The predicted genetic gains (GGs) for milk yield (MY) per year were 34.52 kg, 49.63 kg, 29.35 kg, 76.16 kg, and 77.51 kg for SPT, FPT, SFPT, GS, and GPT, respectively. The GGs of the other goal traits range from 0.69 to 1.19 days per year for age at first calving, from 1.20 to 2.35 days per year for calving interval, and from 0.06 to 0.12 days per year for herd life. Compared to conventional BPs, genomic systems (GPT and GS) enhanced the GG of MY by 53%-164%, reduced generation interval by up to 21%, and improved the accuracy of test bull selection from 0.33 to 0.43. The discounted profit of the BPs varied from 249.58 Ethiopian Birr (ETB, 1 USD = 39.55696 ETB) per year in SPT to 689.79 ETB per year in GS. Genomic selection outperforms SPT, SFPT, and FPT by 266, 227%, and 138% of discounted profit, respectively. Community-based crossbreeding accompanied by GS and gradual support with progeny testing (GPT) is recommended as the main way forward to attain better genetic progress in dairy farms in Ethiopia and similar scenarios in other tropical countries.