Energy mix-driven dynamic life cycle assessment on greenhouse gas emissions of passenger cars in China

Amidst increasingly stringent global emission regulations, China's energy mix is undergoing profound transformation. To more precisely evaluate vehicle emissions, this study aimed to explore the dynamic responses on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of passenger cars in China, considering the change of energy mix. An energy mix-driven life cycle assessment model was established and inventory data were obtained. The electricity generation mix data in China were predicted, and the results in life cycle GHG emissions of internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) from 2020 to 2050 were analyzed. Uncertainty, sensitivity and breakeven distance analyses were performed to explore the impact of various parameters. The results showed that the average emission factor of electricity generation mix is projected to decrease by 87.11% in 2050 with the cleanliness of energy mix. The life cycle GHG emissions of ICEV, BEV and PHEV produced in 2020 were 37.16, 28.04 and 29.84 tCO2eq respectively. Based on the linear models, it is expected that the emissions from these vehicles produced in 2050 would be reduced by 11.48%, 61.31%, and 53.39% respectively compared to their levels in 2020. Policies and measures for emission reduction were proposed based on the sensitive parameters and calculation results.