HPV overtakes smoking as the leading cause of oropharyngeal cancer in Ireland: experience of a head and neck surgery tertiary referral centre

Background Worldwide, the incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) caused by human papillomavirus (HPV), a sexually transmitted virus, is increasing. This increase has yet to be demonstrated in an Irish cohort. Aims To evaluate the number of OPSCC presentations locally, to stratify cases by HPV status and to estimate if any changes in the patient population had occurred over a 10-year period. Methods A STROBE-compliant, retrospective evaluation of patients with OPSCC at St James's Hospital between 2012 and 2022 was performed. Patients with non-SCC histology, undocumented HPV status and residual or recurrent tumours were excluded. Results We included 294 patients with a mean age of 60.4 years (95% CI 59.2-61.5 years) and 175 (59.5%) patients had HPV+ OPSCC. The number of new OPSCC diagnoses increased from 115 patients (39.1%) between 2012 and 2016 to 179 patients (60.9%) between 2017 and 2021. This was associated with an increased proportion of HPV-linked OPSCC (50.4% 2012-2016 vs. 65.4% 2017-2021, p = 0.011). Over time, more patients had a functionally limiting comorbidity (p = 0.011). The mean age of HPV+ OPSCC cases increased by 3.6 years (p = 0.019). Patients with HPV+ OPSCC had greater 2-year OS (83.9% vs. 54.9%; p < 0.001) and 2-year DFS (73.5% vs. 45.6%; p < 0.001). The 2-year OS and DFS did not change over time for HPV+ or HPV- patients. Conclusions In our institution, the number of patients with OPSCC is increasing due to an escalation in cases associated with HPV. Population-level interventions such as vaccination programs may alter the current increase in the incidence of these tumours.