A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor: a study based on the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database

Purpose The objective of this investigation was to construct and validate a nomogram for prognosticating cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients afflicted with gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) at 3-, 5-, and 8-years post-diagnosis.Methods Data pertaining to patients diagnosed with GIST were acquired from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Through random selection, a training cohort (70%) and a validation cohort (30%) were established from the patient population. Employing a backward stepwise Cox regression model, independent prognostic factors were identified. Subsequently, these factors were incorporated into the nomogram to forecast CSS rates at 3-, 5-, and 8-years following diagnosis. The nomogram's performance was assessed using indicators such as the consistency index (C-index), the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration curves, and decision-curve analysis (DCA).Results This investigation encompassed a cohort of 3,062 GIST patients. By analyzing the Cox regression model within the training cohort, nine prognostic factors were identified: age, sex, race, marital status, AJCC (American Joint Committee on Cancer) stage, surgical status, chemotherapy status, radiation status, and income status. The nomogram was subsequently developed and subjected to both internal and external validation. The nomogram exhibited favorable discrimination abilities, as evidenced by notably high C-indices and AUC values. Calibration curves confirmed the nomogram's reliability. Moreover, the nomogram outperformed the AJCC model, as demonstrated by enhanced NRI and IDI values. The DCA curves validated the clinical utility of the nomogram.Conclusion The present study has successfully constructed and validated the initial nomogram for predicting prognosis in GIST patients. The nomogram's performance and practicality suggest its potential utility in clinical settings. Nevertheless, further external validation is warranted.