What investments in material production are needed to achieve net-zero construction in the UK by 2050?

Meeting the goal of reaching zero emissions by 2050 requires profound changes in the production of bulk materials, cement and concrete. For construction sector, this transition is also dependent on the evolution of demand, stemming from changes in the population structure and practice in structural design. Many timelines have been produced suggesting pathways to zero emissions, but none have looked at the required investment level, or the feasibility of transition looking at the level of single plants being shut, transformed or built within a single country. In this paper, we have looked at transition pathways in the United Kingdom as a function of the available funding and the possible emergence of transformative technologies. We find that trade is a necessary component of the transition, allowing for continued construction while the production apparatus is upgraded. Our results further suggest that the current level of investment is consistent with today's carbon price but falls short of what is necessary to achieve net zero by 2050. Finally we find that pathways assuming that CCS will be available at scale are particularly susceptible to overshoot their emissions target if the technological deployment fails to materialise. This is because they combine heavy investments, immature technology and concentrated risk.