Food security in Nigeria amidst globalization, economic expansion, and population growth: A wavelet coherence and QARDL analysis

Food security is crucial on a global scale as it provides essential health, social, and economic advantages to the human population. Therefore, to achieve the sustainable development goal of zero hunger (Goal 2), it is imperative to assess the progress of food security, particularly in developing countries. Thus, this reflects on the relative factors affecting food security in Nigeria from 1980 to 2022. The study utilized advanced econometrics approaches such as Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) and Wavelet Coherence (WTC) to analyze the data. Food security is measured using the food production index (FPI), while other variables such as globalization (GLOB), population growth (POP), gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of economic growth, and inflation are considered. The results of the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag analysis indicate that in the short-term, globalization has a beneficial impact on FPI at the 0.25 quantile, but it has a detrimental effect on food security at the 0.50 and 0.75 quantiles. Nevertheless, over a prolonged period, the effect is detrimental in all quantiles. Additionally, in the short-term, FPI experiences a beneficial effect from GDP in all quantiles. Over time, GDP has a positive effect on all levels of income distribution. However, in the short-term, the size of the POP has a negative effect on FPI for the 0.25 to 0.75 quantiles. Further discussion is dedicated to policy options and their implications.