A novel hybrid model based on multiple influencing factors and temporal convolutional network coupling ReOSELM for wind power prediction

Highly accurate wind power prediction is important for the operation and management of wind farms, energy utilization and power supply. In recent years, in order to further improve prediction accuracy, some researchers have considered utilizing factors such as wind speed and wind direction to establish prediction models. However, this often results in input redundancy due to a lack of technical means. In this paper, a multivariate prediction model for wind power based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), fuzzy entropy (FE), partial autocorrelation function and cross -correlation function (PACF &CCF, abbreviated as PC), improved artificial hummingbird algorithm (IAHA), temporal convolutional network (TCN), and regularized online sequential extreme learning machine (ReOSELM) is proposed. To address the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the original wind power time series and decrease computational costs, the VMD combined with FE data preprocessing technique is employed. Considering the information redundancy in the multivariate data, the PC technique is utilized to conduct correlation analysis on the input data and select highly correlated features as inputs. When the input is multivariate and high -dimensional, the ReOSELM model struggles to achieve satisfactory prediction performance. Therefore, a new model based on TCN-ReOSELM is constructed. Additionally, to overcome the drawbacks of manual parameter adjustment, an IAHA algorithm is proposed, which integrates Latin hypercube sampling and chaotic local search strategies, to optimize the crucial parameters of TCN-ReOSELM. The experimental results demonstrate that the multivariate method proposed in this paper reduces the RMSE by 31% compared to the univariate method. Specifically, the proposed VMD-FE-PC-TCN-ReOSELM model reduces the RMSE, MAE, and SMAPE by 60 - 64%, 55 - 58%, and 10 - 36%, respectively, compared to the PC-TCN-ReOSELM model.