ADDRESSING ABRUPT GLOBAL WARMING, WARMING TREND SLOWDOWN AND RELATED INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON FEATURES IN RECENT DECADES

This study addresses abrupt global warming and a slowdown thereafter that happened in recent decades. It separated the role of anthropogenic CO2 led linear trend to that from natural factors (volcano and the sun). It segregates a period 1976-1996 where two explosive volcanic eruptions occurred in active phases of strong solar cycles and also the period covers two whole solar cycles. That same period coincided with abrupt global warming. This study suggests that domination of a particular type of ENSO, the Central Pacific (CP) type ENSO and related feedback from water vapour played a crucial role. A plausible mechanism was proposed that could be triggered by explosive volcanos via a preferential North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. It modulates the CP ENSO via extratropical Rossby wave and affects the Aleutian Low. From that angle, it is possible to explain the disruption of ENSO and Indian Summer Monsoon teleconnection during the abrupt warming period and how it recovered subsequently afterward. Interestingly, individual models and also the CMIP5 model ensemble fails to agree with the observation. This study further explores important contributions due to natural drivers those are missed by models.