Programming is acknowledged widely as a cornerstone skill in Computer Science education. Despite significant efforts to refine teaching methodologies, a segment of students is still at risk of failing programming courses. It is crucial to identify potentially struggling students at risk of underperforming or academic failure. This study explores the predictive potential of students' problem-solving skills through dynamic, domain-independent, complex problem-solving assessment. To evaluate the predictive potential of complex problem-solving empirically, a case study with 122 participants was conducted in the undergraduate Introductory Programming Course at the University of Maribor, Slovenia. A latent variable approach was employed to examine the associations. The study results showed that complex problem-solving has a strong positive effect on performance in Introductory Programming Courses. According to the results of structural equation modeling, 64% of the variance in programming performance is explained by complex problem-solving ability. Our findings indicate that complex problem-solving performance could serve as a significant, cognitive, dynamic predictor, applicable to the Introductory Programming Course. Moreover, we present evidence that the demonstrated approach could also be used to predict success in the broader computing education community, including K-12, and the wider education landscape. Apart from predictive potential, our results suggest that valid and reliable instruments for assessing complex problem-solving could also be used for assessing general-purpose, domain-independent problem-solving skills in computing education. Likewise, the results confirmed the positive effect of previous programming experience on programming performance. On the other hand, there was no significant direct effect of performance in High School mathematics on Introductory Programming.
