The Association Between Overall, Healthy, and Unhealthy Plant-Based Diet Index and Risk of Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

Context The global incidence of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has increased substantially in recent years. Among the established, modifiable lifestyle factors associated with favorable prediabetes and T2DM risk, healthy dietary patterns have attracted considerable attention.Objective The association between adherence to plant-based dietary pattern indices (PDIs), including the overall PDI (O-PDI), healthy PDI (H-PDI), and unhealthy PDI (U-PDI), and the risk of prediabetes and T2DM was investigated in this study.Data Sources A literature search was conducted of the PubMed/Medline, Scopus, and Web of Sciences databases from their inception to February 2024. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted using random effects models and dose-response analyses. The Cochran Q test and the I2 statistic were used to evaluate heterogeneity between studies.Data Extraction A total of 16 publications, with data on a total of 721 012 participants, were identified for the meta-analysis.Data Analysis According to a pooled analysis, compared with the lowest category of O-PDI and H-PDI adherence, the highest category was associated with a 14% and 19% reduction in T2DM risk, respectively, for O-PDI (effect size [ES] = 0.86; 95%CI, 0.82-0.90; I2 = 57.7) and H-PDI (ES = 0.81; 95%CI, 0.75-0.88; I2 = 82.6). Greater adherence to U-PDI was significantly associated with an 10% increase in the risk of T2DM (ES = 1.10; 95%CI, 1.04-1.16). Consistent associations were found within the predetermined subgroups. As well, there was a nonlinear inverse association between O-PDI, H-PDI, and T2DM risk. No significant association was found between adherence to O-PDI (ES = 0.87; 95%CI, 0.75-1.01; I2 = 68%), H-PDI (ES = 0.99; 95%CI, 0.87-1.13; I2 = 0.0%), and U-PDI (ES = 1.09; 95%CI, 0.94-1.21; I2 = 22.9%) and risk of prediabetes.Conclusion These findings underscore the importance of dietary selections within the framework of a plant-based dietary pattern, particularly when incorporating healthful, plant-based foods, which may have potential benefits in reducing the T2DM risk.Systematic Review Registration PROSPERO registration no. CRD42023459851.