Multi-Scenario Simulating the Impacts of Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Health in Urban Agglomerations on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountain, China

It is of great significance for scientific land use planning and ecological security protection to clarify the impacts of land use changes on an ecosystem's health. Based on the dynamic evolution of land use and ecosystem health on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountain (NSTM) from 2000 to 2020, this study utilized the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, the Vitality-Organization-Resilience-Services (VORS) model, and the elasticity approach to assess the impacts of land use changes on ecosystem health under four different scenarios: Natural Development Scenario (ND), Farmland Conservation Priority Scenario (FP), Ecological Conservation Priority Scenario (EP), and Urban Development Priority Scenario (UD). The results indicate that (1) land use on the NSTM from 2000 to 2020 was predominantly characterized by barren land and grassland. (2) The overall level of ecosystem health on the NSTM was poor from 2000 to 2020 but showed a gradual improvement trend. (3) Ecosystem health levels vary greatly across scenarios. In general, ecosystem health improves under FP and EP scenarios but deteriorates significantly under ND and UD scenarios. The resilience of ecosystem health varies significantly across different land categories. In the future, optimizing the current land use pattern and refining the ecological protection policy are essential to enhance ecosystem health and services in the NSTM.