Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

被引：51

作者：

Pereira, Henrique M. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Martins, Ines S. ^{[1
,2
,4
]}

Rosa, Isabel M. D. ^{[1
,2
,5
]}

Kim, Hyejin ^{[1
,2
,6
]}

Leadley, Paul ^{[7
]}

Popp, Alexander ^{[8
,9
,10
]}

van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^{[11
,12
]}

Hurtt, George ^{[13
]}

Quoss, Luise ^{[1
,2
]}

Arneth, Almut ^{[14
]}

Baisero, Daniele ^{[15
,16
]}

Bakkenes, Michel ^{[11
]}

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca ^{[17
,18
]}

Chini, Louise ^{[13
]}

Di Marco, Moreno ^{[15
]}

Ferrier, Simon ^{[19
]}

Fujimori, Shinichiro ^{[20
,21
]}

Guerra, Carlos A. ^{[1
,22
]}

Harfoot, Michael ^{[23
]}

Harwood, Thomas D. ^{[19
,24
]}

Hasegawa, Tomoko ^{[21
,25
]}

Haverd, Vanessa ^{[19
]}

Havlik, Petr ^{[26
]}

Hellweg, Stefanie ^{[27
]}

Hilbers, Jelle P. ^{[11
,28
]}

Hill, Samantha L. L. ^{[23
,29
]}

Hirata, Akiko ^{[30
,31
]}

Hoskins, Andrew J. ^{[19
,32
]}

Humpenoeder, Florian ^{[8
,9
]}

Janse, Jan H. ^{[11
,33
]}

Jetz, Walter ^{[34
,35
]}

Johnson, Justin A. ^{[36
]}

Krause, Andreas ^{[14
,37
]}

Leclere, David ^{[26
]}

Matsui, Tetsuya ^{[30
,31
]}

Meijer, Johan R. ^{[11
]}

Merow, Cory ^{[38
]}

Obersteiner, Michael ^{[24
,26
]}

Ohashi, Haruka ^{[30
]}

De Palma, Adriana ^{[29
]}

Poulter, Benjamin ^{[39
]}

Purvis, Andy ^{[29
,40
]}

Quesada, Benjamin ^{[14
,41
]}

Rondinini, Carlo ^{[15
]}

Schipper, Aafke M. ^{[11
,28
]}

Settele, Josef ^{[1
,42
,43
]}

Sharp, Richard ^{[17
]}

Stehfest, Elke ^{[11
]}

Strassburg, Bernardo B. N. ^{[44
,45
]}

Takahashi, Kiyoshi ^{[21
]}

机构：

[1] German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany

[2] Martin Luther Univ Halle Wittenberg, Inst Biol, D-06108 Halle, Germany

[3] Univ Porto, CIBIO InBIO, BIOPOLIS, P-4485661 Porto, Portugal

[4] Univ York, Leverhulme Ctr Anthropocene Biodivers, Dept Biol, York YO10 5DD, England

[5] JNTL Consumer Hlth Ltd, Kenvue Portugal, P-2740262 Porto Salvo, Portugal

[6] UK Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England

[7] Univ Paris Saclay, AgroParisTech, Ecol Systemat & Evolut, CNRS, F-91405 Gif Sur Yvette, France

[8] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res P, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

[9] Leibniz Assoc, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

[10] Univ Kassel, Fac Organ Agr Sci, D-37213 Witzenhausen, Germany

[11] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands

[12] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, NL-3584 CB Utrecht, Netherlands

[13] Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[14] Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Dept Meteorol & Climate Atmospher Environm Res, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany

[15] Sapienza Univ Roma, Dept Biol & Biotechnol, I-00185 Rome, Italy

[16] KBA Secretariat, BirdLife Int, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, England

[17] World Wildlife Fund, Global Sci, Washington, DC 20037 USA

[18] Univ Minnesota, Inst Environm, St Paul, MN 55108 USA

[19] CSIRO Environm, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

[20] Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Katsura Campus, Kyoto 6158540, Japan

[21] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

[22] Univ Coimbra, P-3004530 Coimbra, Portugal

[23] World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, United Nat Environm Programme, Cambridge CB3 0DL, England

[24] Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England

[25] Ritsumeikan Univ, Shiga 5258577, Japan

[26] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

[27] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Environm Engn, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland

[28] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Radboud Inst Biol & Environm Sci, NL-6500 GL Nijmegen, Netherlands

[29] Nat Hist Museum, Dept Life Sci, London SW7 5BD, England

[30] Forest Res & Management Org, Forestry & Forest Prod Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058687, Japan

[31] Univ Tsukuba, Fac Life & Environm Sci, Ibaraki 3058572, Japan

[32] James Cook Univ, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia

[33] Netherlands Inst Ecol NIOO, KNAW, NL-6700AB Wageningen, Netherlands

[34] Yale Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, New Haven, CT 06511 USA

[35] Yale Univ, Ctr Biodivers & Global Change, New Haven, CT 06511 USA

[36] Univ Minnesota, Dept Appl Econ, St Paul, MN 55108 USA

[37] Tech Univ Munich, TUM Sch Life Sci, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany

[38] Univ Connecticut, Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Storrs, CT 06269 USA

[39] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Biospher Sci Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

[40] Imperial Coll London, Dept Life Sci, Ascot SL5 7PY, England

[41] Univ Rosario, Fac Nat Sci, Earth Syst Sci Program, Interact Climate Ecosyst ICE Res Grp, 63B-48, Bogota, Colombia

[42] UFZ, Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Conservat Biol & Social Ecol Syst, D-06210 Halle, Germany

[43] Univ Philippines, Inst Biol Sci, Laguna 4031, Philippines

[44] Re green, BR-22470060 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[45] Pontificia Univ Catolica Rio de Janeiro, Rio Conservat & Sustainabil Sci Ctr, Dept Geog & Environm, BR-22453900 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

[46] Univ Innsbruck, Dept Ecol, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria

[47] Univ Grenoble Alpes, Univ Savoie Mont Blanc, Lab Ecol Alpine, CNRS,LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France

[48] Luxembourg Inst Sci & Technol, Environm Res & Innovat Dept, Observ Climate Environm & Biodivers, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg

[49] UCL, Ctr Biodivers & Environm Res, London C1E6BT, England

[50] Wageningen Univ & Res, Earth Syst & Global Change Grp, NL-6708PB Wageningen, Netherlands

来源：

SCIENCE | 2024年 / 384卷 / 6694期

基金：

日本学术振兴会;

关键词：

EXTINCTION RISK; FUTURE;

D O I：

10.1126/science.adn3441

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

引用

页码：458 / 465

页数：8

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