The flip side of the China syndrome: Local labor market effects in China

US-China trade is widely thought to have contributed significantly to the decline in US manufacturing employment, sometimes called the China syndrome. Flipping the point of view, we examine its impact on Chinese local labor markets between 2000 and 2010. In prefectures most exposed to export growth, there is a pronounced increase in manufacturing employment, primarily among young, low-educated, rural people and more for blue-collar workers. Beyond manufacturing, there is a decline in agricultural, yet an expansion in service employment, exhibiting substantial heterogeneity across demographics. The export-driven structural transformation is profound and long-lasting out to 2020. Among nonworking people, export growth primarily increases school attendance and the share of people relying on family support, suggesting an income effect.