Identification of an immune-related signature as a prognostic classifier for patients with early-stage head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Background: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is the most common type and accounts for 90% of all head and neck cancer cases. Despite advances in early diagnosis and treatment strategies-chemotherapy, surgical resection, and radiotherapy-5-year survival remains grim. For patients with early-stage HNSCC, accurately predicting clinical outcomes is challenging. Considering the pivotal role of the immune system in HNSCC, we developed a reliable immune-related gene signature (IRGS) and explored its predictive accuracy in patients with early-stage HNSCC. Methods: We examined immune gene expression profiles and clinical information from 230 early-stage HNSCC specimens, including 100 cases from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), 49 cases from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO; GSE65858), and 81 cases from an independent clinical cohort. The prognostic signature was constructed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox algorithm. We also explored the IRGS-related biological pathways and immune landscape using bioinformatics analysis. Results: A nine-immune-gene signature was generated to significantly stratify patients into high and low-risk groups. High risk patients exhibited shorter survival time [hazard ratio (HR) =13.795, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.275-58.109, P<0.001]. The signature demonstrated robust prognostic ability in the training and validation sets and could independently predict overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS). Subsequently, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and C-index confirmed the signature's predictive accuracy compared to clinical parameters. Additionally, cases classified as low risk showed more immune cell infiltration than high-risk cases. Conclusions: Our novel IRGS is a reliable and robust classifier for accurate patient stratification and prognostic evaluation. Future studies will attempt to affirm the signature's clinical application to early-stage HNSCC.