Construction of a 3-year risk prediction model for developing diabetes in patients with pre-diabetes

Introduction To analyze the influencing factors for progression from newly diagnosed prediabetes (PreDM) to diabetes within 3 years and establish a prediction model to assess the 3-year risk of developing diabetes in patients with PreDM. Methods Subjects who were diagnosed with new-onset PreDM at the Physical Examination Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from October 1, 2015 to May 31, 2023 and completed the 3-year follow-up were selected as the study population. Data on gender, age, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, etc. were collected. After 3 years of follow-up, subjects were divided into a diabetes group and a non-diabetes group. Baseline data between the two groups were compared. A prediction model based on logistic regression was established with nomogram drawn. The calibration was also depicted. Results Comparison between diabetes group and non-diabetes group: Differences in 24 indicators including gender, age, history of hypertension, fatty liver, BMI, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, HbA1c, etc. were statistically significant between the two groups (P<0.05). Differences in smoking, creatinine and platelet count were not statistically significant between the two groups (P>0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that ageing, elevated BMI, male gender, high fasting blood glucose, increased LDL-C, fatty liver, liver dysfunction were risk factors for progression from PreDM to diabetes within 3 years (P<0.05), while HDL-C was a protective factor (P<0.05). The derived formula was: In(p/1-p)=0.181xage (40-54 years old)/0.973xage (55-74 years old)/1.868xage (>= 75 years old)-0.192xgender (male)+0.151xblood glucose-0.538xBMI (24-28)-0.538xBMI (>= 28)-0.109xHDL-C+0.021xLDL-C+0.365xfatty liver (yes)+0.444xliver dysfunction (yes)-10.038. The AUC of the model for predicting progression from PreDM to diabetes within 3 years was 0.787, indicating good predictive ability of the model. Conclusions The risk prediction model for developing diabetes within 3 years in patients with PreDM constructed based on 8 influencing factors including age, BMI, gender, fasting blood glucose, LDL-C, HDL-C, fatty liver and liver dysfunction showed good discrimination and calibration.