Study on the evolutionary characteristics of coupling and coordination between new urbanization and green agricultural development and its dynamic factors

"Green" is one of the main themes of agricultural development, and the green development of agriculture has gradually become a key engine to drive the High-quality development of China's agriculture and comprehensively promote the strategy of Rural Revitalisation under the double constraints of resources and the environment. Based on the panel data of 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), this study measures the level of New Urbanisation (NU) and Green Agricultural Development (GAD), explores the spatial-temporal coupling and coordinated evolution characteristics of the two, and uses spatial econometrics and geodetic detector models to reveal the power mechanism in the process of their coupled and coordinated development. The main conclusions are as follows: firstly, the level of NU and GAD in the YREB both showed a steady increase in 2010-2021, but the overall development level is low, with large differences between different regions, facing prominent development imbalances and large room for improvement. Secondly, the inter-annual coordination of the coupling of NU and GAD in the YREB has shown a good development trend of progressive growth, and the differences in location have been narrowing, but the development of the two is not synchronized in most prefectures, and the overall level of coordination needs to be improved. Thirdly, there are significant spatial dependence and spatial spillover effects in the coupling and coordination degree (CCD) of the two systems, and the number of cities whose coupling and coordination levels are mainly in the high-high and low-low range is relatively high. Finally, except for the labor force structure, economic development level, and land use patterns positively affecting the CCD of NU and GAD in the YREB, the rest of the motivating factors show negative effects. During the study period, the CCD of NU and GAD has been dominated by the influence of the urban-rural income gap and economic development level, while the influence of industrial structure on it is increasing. This study discusses the current situation of the coordination level between NU and GAD at the city level and how to achieve coordinated development, and innovates in the research content and perspective. Besides, a forward-looking strategy is developed to promote the coordination of the two, which provides important insights and a realistic basis for policymakers and practitioners.