Supporting zero-waste building: A novel spatial explicit material flow analysis model for construction waste

The accurate quantification of construction waste (CW) is prerequisite for achieving zero-waste in the building sector. This study employs a Spatial Material Flow Analysis model considering building life cycle to estimate the spatio-temporal dynamics of CW in Nanjing, China, over two decades. Additionally, it employs an ARIMA model for forecasting CW generation over the forthcoming decade. During 2000 to 2020, Nanjing's CW witnessed a CW increase from 0.8 to 59.0 Tg, predominantly comprising non-metallic materials. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of CW has widened, accompanied by the emergence of numerous CW hotspots, in parallel with economic and population growth. Future projections suggest a continuous yet decelerating increase in CW generation, highlighting a significant opportunity for resource recovery. The application of this hybrid approach not only enhances CW management accuracy but also supports the broader goal of fostering sustainable building practices. This research expects to enlighten the stakeholders committed to advancing sustainable construction and waste management strategies in the context of zero-waste buildings.