Water Resource Utilization Assessment in China Based on the Dynamic Relationship between Economic Growth and Water Use

Water scarcity has significantly hampered China's economic, social, and environmental development. Ensuring sustainable water utilization is crucial given the mounting water stress accompanying continuous economic growth. A quantitative water resource forewarning model was constructed using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. By analyzing the key indicators related to water systems and GDP data from 2001 to 2022, the VAR model revealed the long-term dynamic correlation between water consumption and economic growth using generalized impulse response, co-integration, and predictive variance decomposition analyses. The results revealed the presence of a long-term equilibrium between water consumption and economic growth, with a stable co-integration relationship and an optimal lag period of one year. The positive impact of water consumption on economic development increased during the 2001-2022 period, indicating a rising dependence of GDP on water resources. Water usage rose with economic development, while the water resource carrying capacity remained high and continued to grow. Based on the generalized impulse response, co-integration, and predictive variance decomposition analyses, this study predicted water-use-related indicators, providing vital early warnings for China's water environment carrying capacity from 2023 to 2050. This enabled informed decision-making and fostered sustainable water management practices for the future.