Identifying shrinking cities from a physical city perspective and influencing factors: A case study of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle in China

Urban shrinkage, increasingly prevalent in fast-developing countries like China, is a complex phenomenon deeply influenced by globalization and localized factors. This study focuses on the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, a high-growth region in China, to explore urban shrinkage and its driving factors. Adopting a physical city perspective and utilizing a two-step diagnostic method, the research precisely identifies shrinking cities within the circle and employs a geo-detector model for empirical analysis of influencing factors. Findings reveal a significant developmental imbalance within the circle, with sustainable and transitional growth cities located in core areas, whereas significantly shrinking and potential shrinking cities are found in peripheral zones. This pattern underscores the endogenous challenges of rapid urbanization. The study highlights that urban shrinkage results from interplay between demographic and economic changes, with fiscal autonomy, consumption levels, public service provision, per capita GDP, and industrial structure being key factors. Addressing urban shrinkage effectively requires a shift from traditional balanced development paradigms towards fostering regional coordinated growth, emphasizing the construction of a multi-core urban network and integrating small and mediumsized cities into the developmental process. This innovative approach not only enriches urban shrinkage research but also offers practical insights for sustainable urban governance.