Mathematical Modeling and Transmission Dynamics Analysis of the African Swine Fever Virus in Benin

被引:0
作者
Ayihou, Sena Yannick [1 ]
Doumate, Tele Jonas [1 ,2 ]
Nkwayep, Cedric Hameni [3 ]
Tsakou, Samuel Bowong [3 ]
Kakai, Romain Glele [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Abomey Calavi, Lab Biomath & Estimat Forestieres, 04 POB 1525, Cotonou, Benin
[2] Univ Abomey Calavi, Fac Sci & Tech, 01 POB 4521, Cotonou, Benin
[3] Univ Douala, Fac Sci, Dept Math & Comp Sci, Lab Math, POB 24157, Douala, Cameroon
关键词
infectious disease; mathematical models; stability; sensitivity analysis; numerical simulations; REPRODUCTION NUMBERS; DISEASE; SENSITIVITY; UNCERTAINTY;
D O I
10.3390/math12111749
中图分类号
O1 [数学];
学科分类号
0701 ; 070101 ;
摘要
African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in many African countries, and its control is challenging because no vaccine or treatment is available to date. Nowadays, mathematical modeling is a key tool in infectious disease studies, complementing traditional biological investigations. In this study, we propose and analyze a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of African swine fever (ASF) in Benin that considers the free-living virus in the environment. We provide the theoretical results of the model. The study of the model is conducted by first proving that the model is well posed by showing the positivity and the boundedness of solutions as well as the existence and uniqueness of the solution. We compute the control reproduction number Rc as well as the basic reproduction number R0, which helps to analyze the extinction or the persistence of the disease in the pig population. We provide the global attractivity of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium and study their stabilities. After, we estimate some unknown parameters from the proposed model, and the sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the parameters that influence the control reproduction number. Finally, through numerical simulations, in the current situation, we find that R0=2.78, which implies that the disease will not die out without any control measures and Rc=1.55 showing that the eradication of the disease highly depends on the control measures taken to reduce disease transmission.
引用
收藏
页数:30
相关论文
共 41 条
[1]   Gaps in African swine fever: Analysis and priorities [J].
Arias, M. ;
Jurado, C. ;
Gallardo, C. ;
Fernandez-Pinero, J. ;
Sanchez-Vizcaino, J. M. .
TRANSBOUNDARY AND EMERGING DISEASES, 2018, 65 :235-247
[2]  
Arias M, 2002, TRENDS IN EMERGING VIRAL INFECTIONS OF SWINE, P119
[3]   Reproduction numbers for infections with free-living pathogens growing in the environment [J].
Bani-Yaghoub, Majid ;
Gautam, Raju ;
Shuai, Zhisheng ;
van den Driessche, P. ;
Ivanek, Renata .
JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS, 2012, 6 (02) :923-940
[4]   First Oral Vaccination of Eurasian Wild Boar Against African Swine Fever Virus Genotype II [J].
Barasona, Jose A. ;
Gallardo, Carmina ;
Cadenas-Fernandez, Estefania ;
Jurado, Cristina ;
Rivera, Belen ;
Rodriguez-Bertos, Antonio ;
Arias, Marisa ;
Sanchez-Vizcaino, Jose M. .
FRONTIERS IN VETERINARY SCIENCE, 2019, 6
[5]   A Mathematical Model that Simulates Control Options for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) [J].
Barongo, Mike B. ;
Bishop, Richard P. ;
Fevre, Eric M. ;
Knobel, Darryn L. ;
Ssematimba, Amos .
PLOS ONE, 2016, 11 (07)
[6]   Transboundary spread of pig diseases: the role of international trade and travel [J].
Beltran-Alcrudo, Daniel ;
Falco, John R. ;
Raizman, Eran ;
Dietze, Klaas .
BMC VETERINARY RESEARCH, 2019, 15 (1)
[7]   SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX-MODELS OF DISEASE TRANSMISSION - AN HIV MODEL, AS AN EXAMPLE [J].
BLOWER, SM ;
DOWLATABADI, H .
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW, 1994, 62 (02) :229-243
[8]   Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs) affecting domestic and wild African ungulates: African swine fever, foot and mouth disease, Rift Valley fever (1996-2018) [J].
Calkins, Craig M. ;
Scasta, J. Derek .
RESEARCH IN VETERINARY SCIENCE, 2020, 131 :69-77
[9]  
Carr J., 1981, APPL MATH SCI, V35, DOI DOI 10.1007/978-1-4612-5929-9
[10]   Dynamical models of tuberculosis and their applications [J].
Castillo-Chavez, C ;
Song, BJ .
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING, 2004, 1 (02) :361-404