Climate change and migration decisions: A choice experiment from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Forecasting the impact of climate change on migration is difficult, given widespread reliance on historical data and limited exposure to actual climate change among target populations. This study takes a different approach, employing a choice experiment to examine intentions to migrate among farmers living in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, one of the areas in the world most significantly affected by climate change. The respondents are asked to make migration choices for scenarios constructed using six attributes: drought intensity, flood frequency, income change from migration, migration networks, neighbors' choices, and crop choice restriction. The results indicate that all attributes positively influence migration decisions, with drought having the strongest impact. Prior experience of climate change enhances the effects of drought and flood attributes and there is evidence of complementarities: the drought attribute has a greater impact on individuals with flood experience, while the flood attribute has a higher impact on those with drought experience. Crop choice restrictions, commonly employed by the Vietnamese government to prioritize rice planting, may raise the probability of migration, especially among aqua-rice farmers. These findings provide insights into the debate on climate change-migration links in rural and lowland areas that are seriously affected by climate change.