Assessing the impact of DER on the expansion of low-carbon power systems under deep uncertainty

This paper studies the impact of distributed energy resources (DER) on economic displacements or delays of power system investments. We investigate how the operational flexibility from DER controllability can influence the integrated expansion of transmission and energy storage. Given the interplay of flexibility provision from different technologies, accurately representing uncertainties is essential to avoid over- or underestimating the flexible operational capabilities of DER. To address this challenge, we propose a multi -stage stochastic expansion planning model that can optimise transmission and storage investments, as well as DER services against long-term uncertainties and detailed operational constraints. We employ a four -stage scenario tree to represent uncertainties and a Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition within a column generation approach to tackle computational challenges. Case studies performed on real Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) scenarios demonstrate that a deterministic model overestimates the capabilities of controllable DER to displace transmission investments, particularly in early stages. Conversely, the proposed stochastic model provides a more measured assessment, maintaining a steadier estimate of transmission displacement potential by controllable DER throughout various stages.