NPCC4: New York City climate risk information 2022-observations and projections

被引：7

作者：

Braneon, Christian ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Ortiz, Luis ^{[4
]}

Bader, Daniel ^{[5
,6
]}

Devineni, Naresh ^{[7
,8
]}

Orton, Philip ^{[9
]}

Rosenzweig, Bernice ^{[10
]}

McPhearson, Timon ^{[11
,12
,13
]}

Smalls-Mantey, Lauren ^{[14
]}

Gornitz, Vivien ^{[6
]}

Mayo, Talea ^{[15
]}

Kadam, Sanketa ^{[3
]}

Sheerazi, Hadia ^{[16
]}

Glenn, Equisha ^{[17
]}

Yoon, Liv ^{[18
]}

Derras-Chouk, Amel ^{[19
]}

Towers, Joel ^{[20
]}

Leichenko, Robin ^{[21
,22
]}

Balk, Deborah ^{[1
,23
]}

Marcotullio, Peter ^{[24
]}

Horton, Radley ^{[3
,25
]}

机构：

[1] CUNY, CUNY Inst Demog Res CIDR, New York, NY USA

[2] Carbon Direct, New York, NY USA

[3] Columbia Univ, Columbia Climate Sch, New York, NY 10027 USA

[4] George Mason Univ, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA USA

[5] Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA

[6] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA

[7] CUNY, Dept Civil Engn, New York, NY 10031 USA

[8] CUNY City Coll, CUNY CREST Inst, New York, NY USA

[9] Stevens Inst Technol, Hoboken, NJ USA

[10] Sarah Lawrence Coll, Dept Environm Sci, Bronxville, NY USA

[11] New Sch, Urban Syst Lab, New York, NY USA

[12] Cary Inst Ecosyst Studies, Millbrook, NY USA

[13] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden

[14] New York City Dept Hlth & Mental Hyg, New York, NY USA

[15] Emory Univ, Dept Math, Atlanta, GA USA

[16] Rocky Mt Inst, RMI, New York, NY USA

[17] Metropolitan Transportat Author, New York, NY USA

[18] Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[19] CUNY City Coll, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, New York, NY USA

[20] New Sch, Parsons Sch Design, New York, NY USA

[21] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, New Brunswick, NJ USA

[22] Rutgers State Univ, Rutgers Climate Inst, New Brunswick, NJ USA

[23] Baruch Coll, Marxe Sch Publ & Int Affairs, New York, NY USA

[24] CUNY, Hunter Coll, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, New York, NY USA

[25] Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA

来源：

ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES | 2024年 / 1539卷 / 01期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

adaptation; climate change; climate risk; climate science; New York City; NPCC4; SEA-LEVEL RISE; MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; GRISLI-LSCE CONTRIBUTION; ICE-SHEET EVOLUTION; REPORT CHAPTER 2; DELAWARE RIVER; PHASE; MASS-BALANCE; PANEL; TEMPERATURE;

D O I：

10.1111/nyas.15116

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

New York City (NYC) faces many challenges in the coming decades due to climate change and its interactions with social vulnerabilities and uneven urban development patterns and processes. This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) report contributes to the Panel's mandate to advise the city on climate change and provide timely climate risk information that can inform flexible and equitable adaptation pathways that enhance resilience to climate change. This report presents up-to-date scientific information as well as updated sea level rise projections of record. We also present a new methodology related to climate extremes and describe new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. Future work by the Panel should compare the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report with a subset of models to determine the potential impact and relevance of the "hot model" problem. NPCC4 expects to establish new projections-of-record for precipitation and temperature in 2024 based on this comparison and additional analysis. Nevertheless, the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report may be useful for NYC stakeholders in the interim as they rely on the newest generation of global climate models.

引用

页码：13 / 48

页数：36

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