Prediction by genetic MATS of 4CMenB vaccine strain coverage of invasive meningococcal serogroup B isolates circulating in Taiwan between 2003 and 2020

Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B (NmB) strains have diverse antigens, necessitating methods for predicting meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) vaccine strain coverage. The genetic Meningococcal Antigen Typing System (gMATS), a correlate of MATS estimates, predicts strain coverage by the 4-component MenB (4CMenB) vaccine in cultivable and non-cultivable NmB isolates. In Taiwan, 134 invasive, disease-causing NmB isolates were collected in 2003-2020 (23.1%, 4.5%, 5.2%, 29.8%, and 37.3% from individuals aged <= 11 months, 12-23 months, 2-4 years, 5-29 years, and >= 30 years, respectively). NmB isolates were characterized by whole-genome sequencing and vaccine antigen genotyping, and 4CMenB strain coverage was predicted using gMATS. Analysis of phylogenetic relationships with 502 global NmB genomes showed that most isolates belonged to three global hyperinvasive clonal complexes: ST-4821 (27.6%), ST-32 (23.9%), and ST-41/44 (14.9%). Predicted strain coverage by gMATS was 62.7%, with 27.6% isolates covered, 2.2% not covered, and 66.4% unpredictable by gMATS. Age group coverage point estimates ranged from 42.9% (2-4 years) to 66.1% (<= 11 months). Antigen coverage estimates and percentages predicted as covered/not covered were highly variable, with higher estimates for isolates with one or more gMATS-positive antigens than for isolates positive for one 4CMenB antigen. In conclusion, this first study on NmB strain coverage by 4CMenB in Taiwan shows 62.7% coverage by gMATS, with predictable coverage for 29.8% of isolates. These could be underestimated since the gMATS calculation does not consider synergistic mechanisms associated with simultaneous antibody binding to multiple targets elicited by multicomponent vaccines or the contributions of minor outer membrane vesicle vaccine components. IMPORTANCE Meningococcal diseases, caused by the bacterium Neisseria meningitidis (meningococcus), include meningitis and septicemia. Although rare, invasive meningococcal disease is often severe and can be fatal. Nearly all cases are caused by six meningococcal serogroups (types), including meningococcal serogroup B. Vaccines are available against meningococcal serogroup B, but the antigens targeted by these vaccines have highly variable genetic features and expression levels, so the effectiveness of vaccination may vary depending on the strains circulating in particular countries. It is therefore important to test meningococcal serogroup B strains isolated from specific populations to estimate the percentage of bacterial strains that a vaccine can protect against (vaccine strain coverage). Meningococcal isolates were collected in Taiwan between 2003 and 2020, of which 134 were identified as serogroup B. We did further investigations on these isolates, including using a method (called gMATS) to predict vaccine strain coverage by the 4-component meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB). Meningococcal diseases, caused by the bacterium Neisseria meningitidis (meningococcus), include meningitis and septicemia. Although rare, invasive meningococcal disease is often severe and can be fatal. Nearly all cases are caused by six meningococcal serogroups (types), including meningococcal serogroup B. Vaccines are available against meningococcal serogroup B, but the antigens targeted by these vaccines have highly variable genetic features and expression levels, so the effectiveness of vaccination may vary depending on the strains circulating in particular countries. It is therefore important to test meningococcal serogroup B strains isolated from specific populations to estimate the percentage of bacterial strains that a vaccine can protect against (vaccine strain coverage). Meningococcal isolates were collected in Taiwan between 2003 and 2020, of which 134 were identified as serogroup B. We did further investigations on these isolates, including using a method (called gMATS) to predict vaccine strain coverage by the 4-component meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB).