Crowds and Smiles: Visual Opportunity Structures and the Communication of European Political Leaders During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The growing interest in political leaders' visual communication often emphasizes specific visual features without focusing on the driving factors behind these strategies. Our study introduces the Visual Opportunity Structure (VOS) theory, aiming to explain the use of specific visual elements based on their suitability within the socio-political context. We examined the COVID-19 pandemic, analyzing a large dataset (N = 73,379) of Instagram posts by 28 European national party leaders coded through automatic facial and emotional recognition algorithms. The findings reveal a negative link between the use of inappropriate visual features during pandemic waves, like depicting happiness and groups of people, and the severity of the pandemic's impact. Political leaders significantly reduce these inappropriate visuals during severe waves, reintroducing them in calmer periods. This trend is particularly pronounced among government party leaders. Our research not only unveils a pattern in the visual communication tactics used by political figures during the pandemic but also provides deeper insights into how visual strategies align with the broader context. By shedding light on these nuances, the study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of visual political communication online.