Age-period-cohort analysis of U.S. fertility: a realistic approach

被引：0
作者：
Billari F. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Graziani R. [2 ,3 ,4 ]
机构：
[1] Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Via Roentgen 1, Milan
[2] Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Via Roentgen 1, Milan
[3] Bocconi Institute for Data Science and Analytics, Bocconi University, Via Roentgen 1, Milan
[4] Department of Decision Sciences, Via Roentgen 1, Milan
来源：
Quality & Quantity | 2024年 / 58卷 / 4期
基金：
欧盟地平线“2020”; 欧洲研究理事会;
关键词：
Age-period-cohort analysis; Fertility analysis; Identification issue;
D O I：
10.1007/s11135-023-01787-5
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
A key question for the explanation of fertility trends in advanced societies is whether, in addition to age, period- rather than cohort-related factors matter. In this paper, we analyze a standard set of age-specific fertility rates – from the Human Fertility Database – on the United States between 1933 and 2015. More specifically, we describe and apply an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling approach that relies on second differences as identifiable parameters. Results of our APC analyses tend to be consistent with an interpretation that gives a greater weight to period effects over shorter time horizons, with a significant presence of smooth cohort effects over the longer term. © The Author(s) 2023.
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收藏
页码：3021 / 3040
页数：19
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