Tropopause-level planetary wave source and its role in two-way troposphere-stratosphere coupling

Atmospheric planetary waves play a fundamental role in driving stratospheric dynamics, including sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. It is well established that the bulk of the planetary wave activity originates near the surface. However, recent studies have pointed to a planetary wave source near the tropopause that may play an important role in the development of SSWs. Here we analyze the dynamical origin of this wave source and its impact on stratosphere-troposphere coupling, using an idealized model and a quasi-reanalysis. It is shown that the tropopause-level planetary wave source is associated with nonlinear wave-wave interactions, but it can also manifest as an apparent wave source due to transient wave decay. The resulting planetary waves may then propagate deep into the stratosphere, where they dissipate and may help to force SSWs. Our results indicate that SSWs preceded by both the tropopause and the surface wave-source events tend to be followed by a weakened tropospheric zonal flow several weeks later. However, while in the case of a preceding surface wave-source event this downward impact is found mainly poleward of 60 N-degrees, it appears to be the strongest between 40 and 60 N-degrees for SSWs preceded by tropopause wave-source events. This suggests that tropopause wave-source events could potentially serve as an additional predictor of not only SSWs but also their downward impact as well.