Three Simple Parameters on Admission to the Emergency Department are Predictors for Endoscopic Intervention in Patients with Suspected Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Background: A considerable number of patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) need endoscopic intervention. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine factors that predict the need for endoscopic intervention at the time of admission to the emergency department. Methods: Consecutive patients with International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision diagnosis code K92.2 (gastrointestinal hemorrhage) who underwent upper endoscopy between February 2019 and February 2022, including patients diagnosed with nonvariceal UGIB in the emergency department in the study were reviewed retrospectively. The patients were divided into two groups: those treated endoscopically and those not treated endoscopically. These two groups were compared according to clinical and laboratory findings at admission and independent predictors for endoscopic intervention were determined using multivariate regression analysis. Results: Although 123 patients (30.3%) were treated endoscopically, endoscopic treatment was not required in 283 (69.7%) patients. Syncope, mean arterial pressure (MAP), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) at admission were independent predictors for endoscopic intervention in the multivariate analysis, after adjusting for endoscopy time. The area under the curve of the syncope+MAP+BUN combination for endoscopic intervention was 0.648 (95% CI 0.588-0.708). Although the syncope+MAP+BUN combination predicted the need for intervention significantly better than pre-endoscopy Rockall and AIMS65 scores ( p = 0.010 and p < 0.001, respectively), there was no significant difference in its comparison with the Glasgow-Blatchford score ( p = 0.103). Conclusions: Syncope, MAP, and BUN at admission were independent predictors for endoscopic therapy in patients with nonvariceal UGIB. Rather than using complicated scores, it would be more practical and easier to predict the need for endoscopic intervention with these three simple parameters, which are included in the Glasgow-Blatchford score. (c) 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.