Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia

被引：6

作者：

Taniushkina, Daria ^{[1
]}

Lukashevich, Aleksander ^{[1
]}

Shevchenko, Valeriy ^{[1
]}

Belalov, Ilya S. ^{[2
]}

Sotiriadi, Nazar ^{[3
]}

Narozhnaia, Veronica ^{[3
]}

Kovalev, Kirill ^{[3
]}

Krenke, Alexander ^{[4
]}

Lazarichev, Nikita ^{[5
]}

Bulkin, Alexander ^{[1
,6
,7
]}

Maximov, Yury ^{[8
]}

机构：

[1] Skolkovo Inst Sci & Technol, Moscow, Russia

[2] Russian Acad Sci, FRC Biotechnol, Moscow, Russia

[3] PJSC Sber, Credit Risks Dept, Moscow, Russia

[4] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Geog, Moscow, Russia

[5] Res Ctr Interdata, Timertau, Kazakhstan

[6] Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ, Inst Artificial Intelligence, Moscow, Russia

[7] Int Ctr Corp Data Anal, Astana, Kazakhstan

[8] Los Alamos Natl Lab, Theoret Div, Los Alamos, NM USA

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2024年 / 14卷 / 01期

关键词：

TEMPERATURE; YIELDS; CMIP5;

D O I：

10.1038/s41598-024-65140-y

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.

引用

页数：15

共 80 条

[1] Data Descriptor: TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015 [J].