A Multi-Scenario Simulation and Dynamic Assessment of the Ecosystem Service Values in Key Ecological Functional Areas: A Case Study of the Sichuan Province, China

The ecosystem service value (ESV) is an important basis for measuring an ecological environment's quality and the efficient management of ecosystems. It is particularly necessary to explore a proven methodology for assessing and predicting ESV dynamics coupled with policy-oriented scenarios that can provide a theoretical groundwork for macro decision, particularly in the context of implementing ecological protection and restoration projects. This study selected the land cover (LC) of Sichuan Province at five periods and the spatiotemporal dynamic equivalent factor method to assess the ESVs from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the study coupled the Markov chain and GeoSOS-FLUS model, and predicted the future pattern of ESVs under four future development scenarios. The results show that (a) the areas of forests, shrubs, waters, wastelands, wetlands, and impervious areas showed a continuous increase from 2000 to 2020, with the most frequent interchanges occurring among croplands, forests, and grasslands. (b) The implementation of ecological protection and restoration projects led to a 13,083.32 x 108 yuan increase in ESV, and barycenter of the ESVs is located in the northeastern part of Ya'an and exhibits a tendency to move towards the northeast. (c) The ESV aggregation pattern of each city has remained unchanged, with Ganzi being the only city with a high aggregation. Overall, there are more conflict cities than coordination cities between economic development and the ecological environment. (d) The total ESV in 2025 will continue to increase under all development scenarios, reaching a maximum of 50,903.37 x 108 yuan under the EP scenario. This study can provide insights for ecological planning decisions and sustainable regional socio-economic development.