Integrated assessment of land-use management effects on ecosystem services under climate-adaptive scenarios in the Loess Plateau region of China

Assessing the impacts of land-use management on the specific ecosystem services (ESs) is very important in eco-fragile regions. This study simulates the combined effects of future land-use management on ESs typical in the Chinese Loess Plateau to examine the different ecological effects of a climate adaptation scenario versus two reference scenarios (agroforestry development and business-as-usual). We integrated spatially explicit land-use modeling and biophysical simulation methods to map ecosystem service provisioning for food production, carbon storage, water conservation, and soil conservation, supported by multiple data sources. Based on our results, the BAU and agroforestry development scenarios all show declining trends in service provision compared to the base period. Conversely, climate adaptation strategies can synergistically increase existing ecosystem service provision. We believe that land management oriented towards climate resilience strategies can promote ecological restoration and ESs supply synergically in the Loess Plateau region and benefit regional. At the same time, we recommend that further attention is paid to the differentiated ecological and environmental conditions of different sub-basins. Moreover, regional agroforestry complex system models could promote local agriculture development and increase of ESs supply. Our research methods and results can support the local integrated land-use management in the Loess Plateau region, and provide useful references of policy-making for land-use issue in similar ecologically fragile areas.