Analysis of energy policy reform in Iran: Energy and emission intensity changes

The Subsidized energy system of Iran, with its high financial burden, failed to achieve its intended economic goals, resulting in increased energy consumption and pollutant emissions. Energy product subsidies in Iran are among the highest in the world and have important implications for developing countries. This study examines the impact of subsidy removal policy on energy and emission intensities using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model. The findings reveal that after subsidy removal, total output experiences an annual growth of around 1.5%, with output composition changes mainly favoring agriculture and services that are less energy dependent. However, prices soar by at least 10% owing to the higher costs of energy products. The decreasing trend in energy intensity after subsidy reform is accompanied by a decrease in emission intensity. Higher prices of energy after subsidy removal and the corresponding improvement in the efficiency of energy consumption lead to lower emission intensity.