Assessing carbon emission reduction benefits of the electrification transition of agricultural machinery for sustainable development: A case study in China

Electrification of energy -using terminals is critical for achieving energy transition and climate goals, particularly for polluting and widely used production vehicles. Previous studies extensively discussed the electrification of private vehicles, but few studies focused on the agricultural machinery (AM) which is highly polluting. An analysis of the benefits of electric agricultural machinery (EAM) is essential for effectively promoting the development and dissemination of related technologies. Therefore, the goal of this study is to examine the carbon emission reduction benefits of EAM. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of AM carbon emissions in China from 2000 to 2020 using cluster analysis, and proposed a top -down assessment framework integrating machine learning methods and Bass -diffusion model to quantitatively assess the market penetration and carbon reduction potential of EAM under different scenarios. The results showed that AM cumulative carbon emissions, AM carbon emissions, and AM carbon emissions share coefficients varied significantly among Chinese provinces. The permeability of EAM development varied significantly in different scenarios. The implementation of active planning -type policies will greatly promote the electrification of AM, bringing significant carbon emission reduction benefits compared to the market -driven scenario. The results provide basic information for formulating and promoting EAM-related policies in China.