An assessment of the carbon emissions of China's ICT system from the demand and supply perspectives

Previous research has predominantly examined China's Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry's carbon emissions through the lens of technological progress, overlooking impacts from both demand and supply perspectives. We employ a subsystem input-output model to analyze the total emissions of China's ICT industry from 2002 to 2020, decomposing them into direct, intra-sectoral, feedback, and spillover components from both perspectives. Our findings reveal that between 2002 and 2020, demand-driven emissions increased by 205.1 %, while supply-driven emissions surged by 496.4 %. From both demand and supply perspectives, the spillover component emerged as the dominant contributor from 2002 to 2020, particularly in 2020, accounting for more than 99 % of the total emissions. From a demand-driven perspective, we identify ICT manufacturing as the primary emissions source, contributing to over 66 % of the total emissions during the period and triggering significant spillover emissions in the power and heavy manufacturing sectors. Conversely, the supply-driven approach highlights ICT services as the major emitter, accounting for over 70 % of the total emissions between 2002 and 2020, with notable spillover effects observed in the transport sector. We highlight the significance of shaping consumption behaviors related to ICT manufacturing products and improving emissions efficiency in electricity and heavy manufacturing, both crucial intermediate inputs in ICT production, from a demand perspective. From a supply perspective, promoting the adoption of clean technologies among downstream users of ICT services could aid China's emissions mitigation efforts in the digital era.