The Impacts of Water Ecological Carrying Capacity on Green Total Factor Productivity: The Case of Chemical Industry in Jiangsu, China

The chemical industry is not only a crucial sector of national economy, but also a significant consumer of water resources and a major initiator of water pollution. The sustainable development of this sector is intricately linked to the regional water ecological carrying capacity (WECC). Based on SBM-DEA and Global Moran's I, the green total factor productivity (GTFP) and spatial correlation characteristics of the chemical industry in 13 cities within China's chemical agglomeration region in Jiangsu Province were estimated from 2015 to 2019. By combining the WECC results, the Tobit model was employed to reveal the driving factors of WECC in optimizing GTFP. The results indicated that the regional WECC in southern Jiangsu was increasing compared with that in northern Jiangsu, which promoted the growth of GTFP. WECC has been a positive radiation-driven effect since 2017, and the optimization of the various subsystems of WECC has had a different impact on GTFP. For the sustainable development of Jiangsu's chemical industry, effective water resource policies should be formulated by the government, while enterprises need to pursue sustained structural adjustments.