Impact of Ukrainian Refugees on the COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics after 24 February 2022

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine caused an unprecedented number of refugees after 24 February 2022. To estimate the influence of this humanitarian disaster on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics, the smoothed daily numbers of cases in Ukraine, the UK, Poland, Germany, the Republic of Moldova, and in the whole world were calculated and compared with values predicted by the generalized SIR model. In March 2022, the increase in the smoothed number of new cases in the UK, Germany, and worldwide was visible. A simple formula to estimate the effective reproduction number based on the smoothed accumulated numbers of cases is proposed. The results of calculations agree with the figures presented by John Hopkins University and demonstrate a short-term growth in the reproduction number in the UK, Poland, Germany, Moldova, and worldwide in March 2022.