Assessing vegetation dynamics and response patterns to climate change and human activities using advanced analytical tools

Attributing vegetation changes and assessment of its temporal response patterns can provide valuable information for natural resource management, especially in fragile ecosystems. Hence, this study investigates the dynamics and temporal response patterns of different land use classes based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Pakistan's Haro River Basin (HRB) as a test study. So, for this purpose, advanced analytical tools such as Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Residual Trend Analysis, and correlation coefficients were employed. Based on overall analysis, a significant increasing trend in monthly NDVI changes was observed between 2002 and 2021 and showcasing a positive correlation with climatic factors in diverse land use classes. Spatial analysis revealed distinct variations in the time lag response between climatic parameters and NDVI, with approximately 36.38% and 11.38% of the area exhibiting statistically significant lag time effects of 0-month and 1-month, respectively. The analysis revealed varying rates of relative contributions of climatic change (ranging from 71.88 to 78.26%) and anthropogenic activities (i.e., 21.74-31.25%). Notably, based on individual land use classes, climate change also emerged as the dominant driving factor, accounting for more than 55% of the observed changes to different classes as well. This study breaks new ground by using advanced methods to understand how climate and human activities shape vegetation in different River basins, offering crucial insights for global ecological research and restoration efforts.